Updated: Feb 3, 2021
Quick explanation of my though process on these rankings. Guys in the same tier have roughly the same value but might be worth more depending on team fit. For example Lamb has more value to a rebuilding team than Hopkins does, but Hopkins is more valuable to a team that needs top tier production right now and cannot afford to wait for Lamb to grow into that.
It's hard to understate how well Jefferson played in his rookie year and I believe he has earned his spot in the top tier of wideouts. Analytically his profile compares best to guys like Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, and OBJ. Adams and Hill do not need that much explanation IMO, they are both great WRs who play with two of, if not the two, best QBs in the NFL.
Metcalf and Brown are both young WRs just dripping with talent and some could argue that they belong in tier 1 and I wouldn't put up too much of a fight. Don't view me having these players in tier 2 as an insult to them, instead view it as a complement to the guys that I have in tier 1.
Diggs is a player that was a bit hidden/underused in Minnesota and was undervalued because of it. In Buffalo we finally saw him get elite volume and all he did was finish as the WR3 on the year (.5 ppr).
Lamb and Higgins were outstanding for stretches of the year and then they both lost their starting QBs to injury and their production understandably dropped. The both have lots of promise as long term assets but because they have a smaller sample of games than a Jefferson as well as lower production even with their respective starting QBs I have them a decent bit lower than Jefferson.
We also have Godwin and everyone's 2020 version of Godwin, Calvin Ridley, in this tier. Ridley had a far superior year in 2020 but we should not discount what Godwin has done in the past. I for one am not dropping Godwin at all based on his down year because I still believe in the talent no matter where he plays. The reason Ridley is in tier 3 as opposed to tier 2, is purely based on situation. He is tied to an older QB who has shown signs of decline which leads to some question marks about future production, especially if Julio stays in ATL and returns to moderate health.
Hopkins is here because his production is always at a top level and he shows no signs of slowing down. I do have concerns about Murray's growth as a passer and Kingsbury's growth as a play caller though, I'm more concerned with Kingsbury than Murray FWIW. It just did not look like he was being used to his full potential this year.
Terry and Thomas could honestly be a tier higher but I have questions about their QBs next year, so while I believe that they are good players I have questions about their situations.
Evans is someone that I personally faded coming into 2020 and I will not make that mistake again. The same goes for Keenan Allen but with Allen my concern was mostly because of Tyrod Taylor.
Robinson is someone that I was very high on coming into the year and he performed very well despite not so great QB play. I don't know where he will play next year, but there is a decent chance he will have more competition so I have him downgraded a bit.
Moore and Cooper suffered through poor QB play to put up solid years and they are both talented WRs that have plenty of mileage left and both could shoot up my rankings in the future. Cooper more so from getting Dak back and Moore if he gets a QB upgrade this off-season.
Woods might seem like the odd man out here, but with 200 total .5 ppr points last year and a much better QB coming in he could make a push for a top 8 finish in 2021 and I don't really expect him to to start falling off until after 2022.
The one guy on here who's ranking terrifies me is Sutton. He has the talent of someone like a Mike Evans and I hate having guys that are that talented this low. He is coming off of a serious injury and does not have a very good QB so there are some good reasons he is where he is.
Guys like Aiyuk, Claypool, and Johnson are all on the younger side and have shown stretches of very good play. Aiyuk and Johnson are more of the volume play types with Johnson having produced at a higher level so far. Claypool could very easily be a 120 target 12 TD guy for years to come and IMO has the highest upside of the three.
Boyd is a bit of a special case for me, I have always had Boyd higher than consensus. He has produced at a solid level despite very poor QB play the last couple of years. I am not concerned about Higgins stealing work at all because when Green was healthy and a top 10 WR in 2018 Boyd was the WR12 so he can still be very good while playing alongside an alpha like Green or Higgins.
JuJu and Kupp are basically high volume slot guys. JuJu's value could swing a lot depending on where he lands but I would have a hard time putting into the top 16 regardless of where he lands. Kupp should see a nice increase in efficiency as Stafford's WRs averaged 15% more fantasy points per pass attempt than Goff's WRs which is a very large increase. Woods would have finished with 230 points (WR5) and Kupp would have been at 186 points (WR18).
Golladay is someone that I might drop down a tier when all is said and done. For him it really depends on landing spot, maybe he joins Watson wherever he ends up, maybe he goes to Jacksonville, we really don't know where he will end up so I won't have much to say until we know where he will be playing.